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Kalshi: prediction market for events, politics, and sports

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Kalshi is a US-based prediction market where users trade "event contracts" on whether something will happen in the real world. Unlike a sportsbook, Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market. That difference matters for age rules and how parents should think about it.

What Kalshi is and how it works

On Kalshi, each market is a yes/no question about a future event. Examples: Will a certain candidate win the election? Will a team win the championship? Will inflation go above a set level by a given date? Users buy "YES" or "NO" contracts. Each contract pays out $1 if the outcome happens (for YES) or does not happen (for NO), and $0 otherwise. Prices move with trading activity, so a contract trading at 65 cents is roughly a 65% implied probability. Users deposit real money, trade, and can withdraw winnings. The platform makes money from fees on trades, not from taking the opposite side of bets.

Markets cover politics (elections, nominations, policy), sports (championships, awards), economics (GDP, Fed decisions), weather, and other events. Kalshi has grown quickly and is often cited as one of the main regulated prediction markets in the US.

Age rules and why they differ from sports betting

Kalshi requires users to be at least 18 years old to open an account and trade. There is no option for under-18s to use the platform with parental permission. The company uses identity verification during sign-up to try to enforce the age rule.

Traditional sportsbooks in the US usually require users to be 21 or older. Kalshi is 18+ because it is regulated by the CFTC as a financial contract market, not as gambling. That legal distinction leads to a lower minimum age. Even so, 18 is still the legal age of majority in most states, so minors are not allowed.

Access also depends on where you live. Kalshi is not offered in every state. Some states, including Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan, have restrictions or no access. Users must be 18 or older and in an eligible state.

Why parents should pay attention

Research and reporting suggest that prediction markets are increasingly popular with teenagers. Some teens are drawn to the same kind of "will it happen?" excitement as sports betting, and the 18+ bar can feel easier to get past than 21+ at a sportsbook. Underage access can still happen through false IDs, using someone else's account, or weak checks on sign-up. Once on the app, teens can lose real money just like adults.

Even when a teen is 18 and using the app legally, parents may want to talk about the risks. Trading event contracts can feel like a game but involves real cash. Losses can add up, and habits formed around prediction markets can overlap with problem gambling. Experts note that young adults are more vulnerable to gambling-related harm than older adults.

What parents can do

  • Check whether Kalshi (or any prediction market app) is on your child's device. Look for "Kalshi" in their app list or browser bookmarks.
  • Ask how they signed up. If they are under 18, they are not allowed on Kalshi. If they used another person's account or false information, that is against the platform's rules and can have legal or financial consequences.
  • Talk about money and risk. Event contracts are real money. Explain that losses can happen quickly and that "trading" here is not the same as saving or long-term investing.
  • Set clear rules about spending and screen time if your teen is 18 and you are still supporting them. Agree on whether they are allowed to use prediction markets and with what limits.
  • If you see signs of problem gambling (hiding use, chasing losses, mood changes, money issues), reach out to a counselor or a resource like the National Council on Problem Gambling (1-800-522-4700).

Kalshi is one of several prediction markets (along with Polymarket, PredictIt, and others) that parents may hear about. Knowing what it is, how old users must be, and why teens might still encounter it can help you have clearer conversations at home.